Archive for September, 2006

Oligopsony

Sunday, September 24th, 2006

When I read that Infospace’s stock price had dropped 22% on reports that it has lost its largest customer, Cingular, and that analysts were calling for the company to shut down and return cash to shareholders, one word came to mind: oligopsony. (That is how my mind works.)

A monopoly describes a marketplace with many buyers but only one seller. The market for PC operating systems is effectively a monopoly, dominated by Microsoft. A monopsony is a market with only one buyer. This is rarer, so the word is unfamiliar. The market for tanks and helicopter gunships in the US is a monopsony.

An oligopoly is a market with many buyers but just a handful of sellers, and an oligopsony is a market with many sellers but just a few buyers. So few that they "can play off one supplier against another, thus lowering their
costs. They can also dictate exact specifications to suppliers, for
delivery schedules, quality, and … pass off much of the risks of overproduction,
natural losses, and variations in cyclical demand to the suppliers." (Wikipedia.)

The market for mobile content and applications in the US is an oligopsony. Four buyers dominate the market - Cingular, Verizon, Sprint (including Nextel), and T-Mobile - but there are hundreds of sellers like Infospace. Consequently the buyers have extraordinary power: power to dictate contract terms, to rein in suppliers that are too ambitious, and even to summon competitors into existence for suppliers who have none. Even if you get to be big and successful, when you only have four possible customers, losing one means losing at least 20% of your revenue overnight.

If you were checking Infospace’s stock this week, you might have guessed that the ticker was INFO (it is actually INSP). INFO is the ticker of Metro One Telecommunications, which was until a few years ago one of the biggest providers of directory services to the US carriers - the original mobile content business. When you called 411 from your wireless phone, Metro One answered. Then the company lost its contract with Sprint, and began a long slow decline from around $150 to $2.50.

How do you make a billion dollars in this kind of market? You can grow your business as fast as possible into one of a handful of powerful sellers - an oligopoly to counter an oligopsony. This has been the strategy of almost every mobile content company to date, and so far none has succeeded. Or you can market your content directly to consumers. Not surprisingly, many new startups in the mobile content market are taking this approach. It will be interesting to see if any of them are more successful than Infospace.

Jamba

Wednesday, September 13th, 2006

Crazy Frog is everywhere

The big news from CTIA this week was that News Corp bought 51% (why not 100%?) of Jamba from Verisign.

I took this photo a little over a year ago in a small town called Fethiye in the south of Turkey. It was market day, and stalls were piled high with t-shirts: Mickey Mouse, Britney Spears, Homer Simpson … and Crazy Frog. Crazy Frog, one of a number of lunatic characters created by Jamba to sell ringtones, is not so well known in the US, but seems to be known in every corner of Europe. Jamba has done what no other ‘mobile media’ company has done - created original content that millions of people recognize and seek out. Even if it’s incredibly irritating.

If you want to be a big, rich, standalone media company, you have to own your own content or your own distribution. (Owning both may be a disadvantage. Fear of piracy caused Sony Music to block Sony Electronics from developing an mp3 player until it was too late to catch up with Apple.) Tom cannot build a major media company based solely around licensing Dick’s content and repackaging it for Harry’s channel.*

 

In mobile, you can’t own distribution, at least not yet. The carriers control what gets on to consumers’ handsets, and even if you market directly to consumers online you still have to defer to the carriers if you want to be able to bill your customers through their phones.

So if you want to build a mobile media company for the long term - as opposed to selling out early -  you have to own create original content. And so far no one has done this as well as Jamba.

Unfortunately, instead of investing more time and effort into developing new characters like Crazy Frog and new products to take advantage of them, Jamba seems to have spent all its time trying to extract as much money as possible from consumers through questionable marketing practices. I am sure that they did nothing illegal. But when regulators introduce new policies that are specifically intended to block your company’s business practices, and nobody comes to your defense, you have probably gone too far.

Jamba/Verisign never made sense to me. Shortly after the deal Verisign execs talked about shutting down Jamba’s direct-to-consumer business and concentrating on powering carrier-branded services. This would have been a better fit with Verisign’s other businesses, but barking mad.

Jamba/News Corp. does make sense. But I hope they do not treat the creative team at Jamba as a job shop, destined only to execute on whatever ideas come out of Fox in the US or UK (a 24-minute of version of "24" without Kiefer Sutherland that costs $10?). Because Jamba knows far more about creating original content for mobile phones than Fox does.

* Caveats:

(1) It’s a great way for Tom to start a media company - think HBO. But what made HBO big and rich was original content. (2) It’s a fine way for Tom to build a company whose revenues or profits are too small for Dick or Harry to care about - think lunchboxes. (3) It’s a wonderful way to build a big, rich company if Tom has a watertight patent on the process for repackaging the content. Gemstar tried this, but failed.

Next

Sunday, September 10th, 2006

Baby Vicuna

Gratuitous picture of a baby vicuna being bottle-fed by Summer in Peru

You may be wondering why I have stopped posting pretty pictures of macaws and llamas and started writing about technology companies. It’s an abrupt change I know, but the honeymoon is over (literally, not metaphorically). (Well, definitely literally.) I enjoyed our trip more than I can say, but I am glad to be home, and excited about what’s next.

What’s next for me - professionally - is a new startup. I don’t know yet whether I will be joining an existing company or starting one from scratch. I don’t know if it will be on the west coast or the east. But I plan to write about the process. I hope that by doing so, I will learn a lot from the people who read this blog: suggestions about what I should be looking and who I should be talking to, as well as concrete advice. If this is useful to other would-be entrepreneurs, great.

There is some risk that by disclosing what I am doing this way, I may help a competitor or just end up looking like an idiot. But I think that the benefits greatly outweigh the risks.

I still have a few thousand pretty pictures from our trip that I haven’t posted, and a lot of thoughts to go with them, so do stick around if that’s all you are interested in.

Interestingness

Saturday, September 9th, 2006

I got some feedback to my last post (and feel free to post comments, this is a blog after all) and have been doing some further research. Some new companies that strike me as ‘interesting’, because they have a novel product or a novel approach to the market or both include:

Obopay - a mobile payments system that people might actually use
Shozu - upload pictures from your cameraphone to your blog or favorite photo-sharing site, not the web site of your mobile operator
Admob - an advertising network for mobile phones that borrows from Google and Overture instead of Doubleclick
Musicgremlin - a music player that isn’t tethered to a PC or to your mobile operator

Obviously these are all consumer-facing companies. Any other suggestions? Right now I am interested in companies with innovative products and/or strategies, not new ringtone download sites, new games publishers, or - least of all - new names for old companies.

One year on

Thursday, September 7th, 2006

I have been away from the wireless Internet market for a little over twelve months; three spent planning our wedding, nine spent travelling the world. I checked in on sites like Moconews every so often, and I took a look at the services available in many of the countries that we visited, but for the most part I kept my distance.

Catching up now I am struck by how little has changed in the last year. Where are all the new startups?

About a year ago Tim O’Reilly wrote an excellent essay, What is Web 2.0, in the course of which he mentions "9.5 million citations" of the term on Google to illustrate how popular it had become. Today I see 57.5 million citations of the phrase "Web 2.0" on Google, and the list of so-called Web 2.0 startups has gone from the unwieldy to the unbelievable to the ridiculous.

On the other hand the list of exhibitors at CTIA has hardly changed at all in the last year.

Web 2.0 may be a bubble. But better to have bubbled and burst than never to have bubbled at all.

Geotagging

Wednesday, September 6th, 2006

I learned from Fred Wilson that Flickr has just added geotagging, the ability to add latitude and longitude to each of your photos. It’s a good design - you just drag and drop photos onto a map of the world. I quickly tagged 30 or so photos from our travels over the last nine months, plus a few from previous trips. The results are here.

I would like to have a camera (or cameraphone) with integrated GPS so that all my photos could be tagged with time, date, and place. It’s one of the most obvious location-based services, but I am still waiting for it.

We’re Back

Friday, September 1st, 2006

Last Day of the Honeymoon

On the last day of our nine-month honeymoon in Cartagena, Colombia

Summer and I got back to the U.S. very early this morning, after a 24-hour journey from Cartagena in Colombia to Portland, Oregon, via Bogota, Miami, and Las Vegas.

The immigration officer at Miami airport peered at the box on our customs form marked ‘countries that you have visited on this trip’, where in very small letters Summer had written: Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Australia, French Polynesia, Chile, Argentina, Bolivia, Peru, Colombia.

"That’s enough for a lifetime", he said. "Yes", we lied.

We’ll be spending the next month on the west coast, visiting our family in Oregon and then exploring the Bay Area to see if we might like to live there and so that I can explore some opportunities. If you would like to meet up, please email me.

It is good to be back.